Critical Reasoning Example 2

1. The average life expectancy for the United States population as a whole is 73.9 years, but children born in
Hawaii will live an average of 77 years, and those born in Louisiana, 71.7 years. If a newlywed couple from
Louisiana were to begin their family in Hawaii, therefore, their children would be expected to live longer than
would be the case if the family remained in Louisiana.

Which of the following statements, if true, would most significantly strengthen the conclusion drawn in the
passage?

A. As population density increases in Hawaii, life expectancy figures for that state are likely to be revised downward.

B. Environmental factors tending to favor longevity are abundant in Hawaii and less numerous in Louisiana.

C. Twenty-five percent of all Louisianans who move to Hawaii live longer than 77 years.

D. Over the last decade, average life expectancy has risen at a higher rate for Louisianans than for Hawaiians.

E. Studies show that the average life expectancy for Hawaiians who move permanently to Louisiana is roughly equal to that of Hawaiians who remain in Hawaii.

2. Insurance Company X is considering issuing a new policy to cover services required by elderly people who
suffer from diseases that afflict the elderly. Premiums for the policy must be low enough to attract customers.
Therefore, Company X is concerned that the income from the policies would not be sufficient to pay for the
claims that would be made.

Which of the following strategies would be most likely to minimize Company X’s losses on the policies?

A. Attracting middle-aged customers unlikely to submit claims for benefits for many years.

B. Insuring only those individuals who did not suffer any serious diseases as children

C. Including a greater number of services in the policy than are included in other policies of lower cost

D. Insuring only those individuals who were rejected by other companies for similar policies

E. Insuring only those individuals who are wealthy enough to pay for the medical services

Solutions:

1. If B is true, the greater abundance of longevity-promoting environmental factors it mentions is probably at least
partly responsible for the higher life expectancy in Hawaii. Children born in Hawaii benefit from these factors
from birth, and thus Louisianans who have children in Hawaii increase their children’s chances of living longer.
Therefore, B is the best answer. If life expectancy in Hawaii is likely to be falling, as A says, the argument is
weakened rather than strengthened. C and E, in the absence of other relevant information, have no bearing on
the conclusion; thus, they are inappropriate. D is irrelevant, because the information it mentions about rates
would already have been incorporated into the statistics cited in the passage.

2. Insurance companies can improve the ratio of revenues to claims paid, thus minimizing losses, if they insure as
many people belonging to low-risk groups as they can. Because the strategy described in A adds a low-risk
group to the pool of policyholders, this choice is the best answer. B is irrelevant, since no link is established
between childhood diseases and diseases affecting the elderly. C is inappropriate, since increasing the number
of services covered is unlikely to minimize losses. D is inappropriate, since it would increase the likelihood that
claims against the policy will be made. Because policyholders will file claims against the policy for services
covered rather than pay for the cost of the services themselves, E is irrelevant.